Metals generally rose, with SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc up over 1%, silicon metal up over 2%, and the European container shipping index down over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 11:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE lead declining, by 0.06%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both rose by over 1%, with SHFE aluminum up 1.25% and SHFE zinc up 1.23%. SHFE tin rose by 0.69%, while the fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract closed flat at 2,895 yuan/mt, and the main aluminum casting contract rose by 0.91%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.68%, polysilicon rose by 0.72%, and silicon metal rose by 2.23%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 2.1%.

In the ferrous metals series, prices rose collectively, with iron ore up 1%, rebar up 0.67%, and HRC up 0.78%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 1.1%, and coke rose by 1.31%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:06, only LME tin declined, by 0.08%, while other metals rose. LME aluminum and LME zinc both rose by over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.26% and LME zinc up 1.19%. The fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small.

In precious metals, as of 15:06, COMEX gold rose by 0.44%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.14%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.56%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.28%.

Market conditions as of 15:06 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[Announcement] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 13, 2025. Li Yongxia, Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, and Song Junji, Vice Governor of Shandong Province, will introduce the relevant situation of the 2025 Qingdao Summit for Leaders of Multinational Corporations and answer questions from reporters.

[Average Annual Growth Rate of 14.2% Over 25 Years, China-Africa Trade Volume Exceeds 2 Trillion Yuan] On the occasion of the upcoming Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha, Hunan Province, data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 11 showed that since the establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in 2000, the total value of China's imports and exports with Africa has increased from less than 100 billion yuan that year to 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024, representing a cumulative growth of over 20 times and an average annual growth rate of 14.2%, fully demonstrating the strong vitality of China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. On the same day, the General Administration of Customs also released the 2024 China-Africa Trade Index, which rapidly climbed from a base value of 100 points in 2000 to a new high of 1,056.53 points in 2024. (Xinhua News Agency)

The People's Bank of China conducted 164 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan was achieved.

►On June 11, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1815 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:06, the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 99.17. Most economists believe that the US Federal Reserve will remain on hold for at least a few months, as the tariff policies of US President Trump may pose a lingering risk of reigniting inflation. The market will closely monitor the US inflation data to be released later on Wednesday. This report may reflect the economic impact of tariffs on price pressures and could potentially determine the trajectory of the US Fed's monetary policy for the remainder of the year.

Macro:

The World Bank's "Global Economic Prospects" report, released on Tuesday (June 10), clearly stated that global economic growth in 2025 will be only 2.3%, significantly lower than the pre-COVID-19 average and the lowest non-recessionary growth since the 2008 financial crisis. More concerningly, the average annual growth rate of global GDP is projected to be just 2.5% by 2027, marking the slowest pace since the 1960s. The report attributes this bleak outlook to rising trade barriers and "record-high uncertainty." Nearly 70% of economies worldwide are facing downward revisions to their growth forecasts, including the US, Europe, and several emerging market regions. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, vividly compared the situation in an interview, saying, "Uncertainty is like fog on the runway, hindering investment and dimming the economic outlook." This uncertainty not only weighs on global trade but also exerts significant pressure on consumption, investment, and financial market stability. (Huitong Finance)

Today, data to be released include China's year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date social financing scale for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date new RMB loans for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), the US's year-on-year CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year core CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year energy CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), and Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8. Additionally, He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism.

Crude oil:

As of 15:06, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.11% and Brent crude oil down by 0.18%.

According to CCTV News, on the 10th local time, Russian President Putin signed a decree extending countermeasures against the price cap imposed on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025. Earlier, on December 27, 2022, Putin signed a presidential decree prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and oil products to foreign legal entities and individuals that directly or indirectly use a price cap mechanism in their contracts. This decree took effect on February 1, 2023, and its validity has been extended multiple times.

As a major oil-producing country in the world, if Russia significantly reduces its oil exports in the future due to Western price caps, it could lead to an increase in energy prices in some EU countries. For some European countries, such sanctions only harm both sides equally; while others believe that the current price cap is not low enough and does not meet their expectations. For example, countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Malta, which rely heavily on the shipping industry, hope to raise the price cap to around $70 per barrel to alleviate the pressure on local enterprises. However, this is completely opposite to the views of Poland and the Baltic states, where some officials have even proposed setting the cap at $20 per barrel. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, on the other hand, has called for a price cap of no more than $30 per barrel.

The EIA released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report, significantly raising its forecast for the crude oil market surplus in 2025. Its data shows that global oil inventories increased in the first five months of this year and will continue to grow significantly during the forecast period. The EIA expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 8,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is 4,000 barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. The reason for the upward revision in the supply surplus forecast is the decline in oil demand from OECD countries in 2025, as well as the increase in supply growth from OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries. Additionally, the EIA emphasized that while no major supply disruptions are expected, oil supply risks still exist. From the inventory perspective, API data released early in the morning showed that US crude oil inventories decreased by 370,000 barrels in the week ending June 6. Although crude oil inventories have declined, the 370,000-barrel drop is far below analysts' expectations of 2 million barrels. More concerning is the continuous increase in refined product inventories, with gasoline inventories rising by 3 million barrels and distillate inventories increasing by 3.7 million barrels in the same week. Analysts had previously forecast that distillate inventories would increase by about 800,000 barrels and gasoline inventories by 900,000 barrels last week. The continued significant inventory buildup of gasoline and diesel in the US, exceeding expectations, has exerted downward pressure on oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

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